Macroeconomic Profile of the Gulf Region

Policy and Economics Branch
Gulf Region
Fisheries and Oceans
Moncton, New Brunswick

October 2001

Table of Contents

List of graphs
List of tables
List of appendices

Regional socio-economic context
Demographics, housing and households
Housing
Schooling
Population mobility
Labour market
Industry sectors
Income
Employment Insurance

Profile of the processing sector

Comparison of 1992, 1995 and 2000 data

Conclusion

List of graphs

1. Map of the Gulf Region
2. Demographic growth index by region, 1986-1996
3. Age structure of core fishers, Gulf Region
4. Types of housing by area (owner or tenant), 1996
5. Population by level of schooling as a proportion (%) of the total population (15 years and older), 1996
6. Population distribution by labour force activity, 1996
7. Relative size of industry sectors (%)

List of tables

1. Number of plants and number of processing employees by main species, Gulf Nova Scotia, 2000
2. Number of plants and number of processing employees by main species, Prince Edward Island, 2000
3. Number of plants and number of processing employees by main species, Eastern New Brunswick, 2000
4. Comparison of the number of processing plants in the Gulf Region in 1992, 1995 and 2000
5. Comparison of the number of processing sector employees in the Gulf Region in 1992, 1995 and 2000

List of Appendices

Appendix 1.00.0:	Socio-economic variables by sector, 1996, demographic, housing and family units.
Appendix 1.01.0:	Socio-economic variables by region, 1996, labour market and income
Appendix 2.01.0:	Employment insurance statistics, number of claimants by province, month and sex, 1995-99, all types of benefits
Appendix 2.01.1:	Employment insurance statistics, number of claimants by province, month and sex, 1995-99, regular benefits
Appendix 2.01.2:	Employment insurance statistics, number of claimants by province, month and sex, 1995-99, fishing benefits
Appendix 2.02.0:	Employment insurance statistics, number of benefit weeks by province and month, 1994-1999, all type of benefits
Appendix 2.02.1:	Employment insurance benefits, number of benefit weeks by province and month, 1994-99, regular benefits
Appendix 2.02.2:	Employment insurance statistics, number of benefit weeks by province and month, 1994-99, fishing benefits
Appendix 2.03.0:	Employment insurance statistics, average weekly benefits by province and month, 1996-99, all types of benefits
Appendix 2.03.1:	Employment insurance benefits, average weekly benefits by province and month, 1994-99, regular benefits
Appendix 2.03.2:	Employment insurance benefits, average weekly benefits by province and month, 1996-99, fishing benefits
Appendix 3.00.0:	Mobility by sector, place of residence 5 years earlier, 1986, 1991, 1996
Appendix 4.00.0:	Average income and primary housing costs of private households by sector, 1986-96
Appendix 5.00.0:	Total population by level of schooling, by sector, 1986, 1991 and 1996
Appendix 6.00.0:	Population by labour force activity and relative importance of activity (% in relation to total population), by sector, 1996
Appendix 7.00.0:	Socio-economic variables by region, 1996, breakdown of population by labour force activity for the economy as a whole and by region, 1986-96

Regional socio-economic context

Demographics, dwellings and households

(Appendices 1.00.0; 4.00.0)

The Gulf Region territory has a population of over 650,000 people, i.e. 36.6% of the population of the Maritime Provinces. It covers slightly more than 52,000 km², which is 45.6% of the area of the Maritime Provinces. The map below shows the Gulf Region (shaded area), and also points out the three area offices (Antigonish, Charlottetown and Tracadie-Sheila), as well as the Gulf Fisheries Centre located in Moncton, New Brunswick.

Graph 1: Map of the Gulf Region

Within the Gulf Region, the Eastern New Brunswick area is largest, in terms of both area and population. The Gulf Nova Scotia area is second in terms of area, but Prince Edward Island, which is entirely located within the Gulf Region, has the second-largest population. It should be noted that the Gulf Region’s population only increased by 2.8% between 1986 and 1996, while that of the Maritime Provinces as a whole rose by 4.3%. From these statistics, it can be deduced that the region is relatively rural with limited population growth. The following graph shows that the demographic growth index is much higher in Canada as a whole than in the different areas of the Gulf.

Graph 2: Demographic growth index by region 1986-1996

This means that an ageing population can be expected. According to the age structure of bonafide fishers in the Gulf Region on graph 3 (below), between 1986 and 1998, this trend is repeated even within the different age’s groups of the population.

Graph 3: Age structure of core fishers, Gulf Region

Housing

(Appendix 1.00.0)

One noteworthy factor is the high percentage of private housing occupied by owners. Whether in Gulf Nova Scotia, Eastern New Brunswick or Prince Edward Island, the percentage is higher than for the Maritime Provinces as a whole or for Canada. Graph 4 illustrates the situation quite well. The results are even more significant if we consider that this situation is specific to the Maritime Provinces. For example, in Quebec only 55% of housing is owner-occupied.

Graph 4: Types of housing by area (owner or tenant) 1996

The average size of private households is 2.7 persons per household, in all the jurisdictions considered. It should be added that slightly more than 10% of private households consist of single-parent families, with a very large majority of these headed by women.

As a general rule, housing costs – for both tenants and owners – are lower in the Gulf Region than in the Maritime Provinces as a whole, with the exception of Prince Edward Island, where the variance with the Maritimes average is minimal. The results are similar with regard to the percentage of average income allocated for housing costs, with the Gulf Region usually coming in below the Maritimes as a whole. The only exception is with respect to Prince Edward Island owners (See appendix 4.00.0 for more details).

Schooling

(Appendix 5.00.0)

Statistics on schooling indicate a situation that could be described as troubling in the Gulf Region. Some 43.8% of the population over the age of 15 years has no diploma. This percentage is higher than the average for the Maritimes (39.8%) and Canada (36.8%). As a consequence, the Gulf Region’s performance in all categories of schooling is below that of the Maritime Provinces (26.3% vs. 26.7% for a high school diploma, 3.4% vs 3.6% for trade school diplomas, 17.5% vs. 28.7% for non-university studies and 9.1% vs 11.3% for bachelor's and graduate degrees).

Graph 5: Population by level of schooling as a proportion (%) of the total population (15 years and older) 1996

Population mobility

(Appendix 3.00.0)

The Gulf Region’s population is relatively less mobile than that of the Maritime Provinces as a whole. While 70.2% of the Gulf Region population did not move between 1991 and 1996, the same can only be said for 65.7% of the entire Maritimes population. The percentage of intra-provincial migrants is basically the same for all regions. However, Prince Edward Island has a higher percentage of inter-provincial migrants (7.2%) than the Maritimes (5.5%) which in turn have a higher percentage than Gulf Nova Scotia (4.1%) and Eastern New Brunswick (4.0%). There is also a significant difference in terms of migration outside the country, where the Maritime Provinces (0.9%) have a rate almost double that of the Gulf Region (0.5%).

Labour market

(Appendices 1.01.0; 4.00.0; 6.00.0; 7.00.0)

The statistics describing labour market conditions reveal a sizeable variance between conditions on Prince Edward Island and conditions in the Gulf Nova Scotia and Eastern New Brunswick sub-regions. For example, whereas the employment-population ratio is 58.9% on Prince Edward Island, it is only 50.5% for Gulf Nova Scotia and 49.5% for Eastern New Brunswick. The ratio for the Maritimes as a whole is 53.2% versus 51.7% in the Gulf Region. The scenario is the same for the participation rate, with a rate of 68.3% for Prince Edward Island, 59.8% for Gulf Nova Scotia, and 60.3% for Eastern New Brunswick, while the rate for the Maritimes as a whole is 62.0% and for Canada as a whole is 65.0%. The trends are similar for the unemployment rate: 13.8% for Prince Edward Island, 15.5% for Gulf Nova Scotia, 17.9% for Eastern New Brunswick and 14.2% for the Maritimes. The following graph compares the Gulf Region and Canada as a whole with respect to the population distribution by participation, i.e. distribution between persons not in the labour force and those in the labour force. The employment rate and the unemployment rate can be determined from the labour force. The final result is that the Gulf Region is less well positioned than Canada as a whole.

Graph 6: Population distribution by labour force activity 1996

Industry sectors

(Appendice 1.01.0)

A relatively high concentration of jobs in the primary and secondary sectors and a relatively small number of jobs in the tertiary sector characterize the Gulf Region’s economy. In the Maritime Provinces as a whole, the primary sector accounts for 7.7% of jobs. In Prince Edward Island, this sector creates 14.3% of employment, in Eastern New Brunswick 8.4% of jobs and in Gulf Nova Scotia 9.6% of jobs. The size of the secondary sector is particularly significant in Gulf Nova Scotia and Eastern New Brunswick. And, while in the Maritimes as a whole 3 out of 4 jobs are in the tertiary sector, less than 70% of jobs are in services in the Gulf Region. Graph 7 shows the relative sizes of the sectors as percentages.

Graph 7: Relative size of industry sectors (%)

Income

(Appendice 1.01.0)

The average income is lower in the three Gulf sub-regions than the average for the Maritime Provinces. A more detailed analysis shows similar results with regard to the figures for the average employment income of persons working full-time. Moreover, the proportion of part-time or seasonal jobs is much greater than the average for the Maritime Provinces (57.7% vs. 46.6%). It should be noted, however, that in Prince Edward Island, the average income of a private household is higher than the equivalent category for the Maritimes as a whole. This is a recent trend, as it was not the case during the 1991 and 1986 censuses.

An analysis of the distribution of private households by income bracket indicates that in the less than $30,000 and less than $50,000 brackets, the numbers are lower in Gulf Nova Scotia (45.2% and 72.5%) and in Eastern New Brunswick (45.4% and 71.7%) than for the Maritimes as a whole (42.6% and 69.1%) whereas the inverse is true for Prince Edward Island (41.1% and 68.8%).

Employment Insurance

(Appendix 2.01.0 to 2.03.2)

Employment Insurance Program statistics are not available on an intra-provincial basis. We can therefore not do an analysis that would focus strictly on the Gulf Region territory. Nonetheless, an analysis of the statistics that are available brings to light certain interesting points.

The first finding is that the reduction in the number of total claimants (all forms of benefits) between 1995 and 1999 was generally less extensive in the Maritime Provinces than in Canada as a whole. If we track the changes between January 1995 and January 1999, only the number of women claimants in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia declined more than the national average. Between December 1995 and December 1999, no category had dropped more than the Canadian average.

One would have expected the changes in the program that greatly affected seasonal workers to have resulted in a sharper drop in claimants in the Maritime Provinces than in Canada as a whole. A more in-depth analysis would be needed to balance this effect against the improvement in job conditions in the labour market.

Statistics on the number of benefit weeks provide relatively similar results, although the gap between conditions for Canada as a whole and the Maritime Provinces is smaller. Also, it can be seen that average weekly benefits in the Maritimes are constantly lower than the Canadian average. The only exception relates to fishing benefits, where the region usually has higher benefits than the national average.

Profile of the processing sector

A study of the processing sector was done in the fall 2000 for the purpose of preparing a profile of the sector for the Gulf Region. To this end, we gathered data on the species processed and on the number of employees needed during production periods from the 145 plants in the Gulf Region.

To gather the data, a telephone survey was done directly with the plants. Questions dealt with the number of employees hired by the processing plant on an annual basis, but also the number of employees hired to process the various species that make up their production lines. Further to the telephone interviews, the data were compiled and are given in the following tables.

Comparison of 1992, 1995 and 2000 data

The following tables compare the data presented in the previous section in the document, this time from the viewpoint of changes in the sector since 1992. Obviously, given the status of the groundfish fishery, the number of plants has declined since the moratorium went into effect in 1993. In Eastern New Brunswick, which had the largest number of plants processing groundfish, the number of groundfish processing plants went from 22 to 6. In Prince Edward Island and Gulf Nova Scotia, the number of plants decreased from 14 to 2 and from 6 to 3 processing plants respectively.

Meanwhile, the opposite is true for the plants that process shellfish, i.e. their number has increased in the three sectors of the Gulf Region since 1992. Prince Edward Island had the highest increase in the number of plants processing shellfish, i.e. 12 plants between 1992 and 2000, compared to an increase of 4 plants each in Eastern New Brunswick and Gulf Nova Scotia respectively. There was also an increase in the pelagic and estuarial category, but it was less significant.

Table 5 compares the number of processing sector employees in the Gulf Region in 1992 and 2000. The same trends are observed as in the previous tables on the number of plants.

Consequently, the number of plant workers involved in groundfish processing fell in the three sectors of the Gulf Region. Between 1992 and 2000, the drop was of 243 plant workers in Gulf Nova Scotia, and 696 and 880 plant workers in Prince Edward Island and Eastern New Brunswick respectively. With regard to the shellfish category, the contrary was true. In Gulf Nova Scotia, the number of plant workers employed in shellfish processing increased by 1,043 workers. In Prince Edward Island, the number of shellfish plant workers grew by 985. However, in the Eastern New Brunswick sector, the number of plant workers processing shellfish fell by 392 workers, after increasing by 876 persons between 1992 and 1995. The number of jobs and plants in the pelagic and estuarial category remained more or less stable between 1992 and 2000. In conclusion, the increase in the shellfish sector partly compensated for the drop in the groundfish sector, but the positive effects were mainly felt in Gulf Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.

Conclusion

The population of the Gulf Region is mainly coastal, has a low rate of demographic growth and a lower level of schooling than the Canadian average and is reticent about moving outside the region, as witnessed by its low rate of mobility.

The groundfish moratorium had a considerable impact in the Gulf Region, especially in regards to the number of plants that processed groundfish. However, as seen in some parts of the Gulf Region, the number of plants processing shellfish has increased.

In closing, a review of current economic conditions shows that certain factors are now favourable for the region’s economic development. For example, the exchange rate on the U.S. dollar fosters exports. This is a positive factor for the region, given the proximity of the U.S. market. Moreover, personal and business tax rates are dropping in most regions, and most governments are tabling balanced budgets and reducing their debt loads.

In short, despite a few negative indicators, the Gulf Region has the tools for economic development and the fishing industry continues to play an important role in these communities.

Appendices

Appendix 1.00.0

Appendix 1.01.0

Appendix 2.01.0

Appendix 2.01.1

Appendix 2.01.2

Appendix 2.02.0

Appendix 2.02.1

Appendix 2.02.2

Appendix 2.03.0

Appendix 2.03.1

Appendix 2.03.2

Appendix 3.00.0

Appendix 4.00.0

Appendix 5.00.0

Appendix 6.00.0

Appendix 7.00.0